1. Obama the Campaigner is 10 times better than Obama the President.
I do not mean to insult Obama's time in office. But let's face it: he's an incredible campaigner. We've never seen a political machine of his size. His fund-raising capabilities are unsurpassed. He has vast grass-roots support and unity within the minority communities. He is a charismatic speaker and campaigner. He doesn't make gaffes. He looks presidential. His campaign staff is filled with smart, capable people who know how to win.
So far, we haven't seen any scandals, any ethical issues, any major problems that have stuck to Obama himself. Notice what Republicans say: "the Obama administration". This implies guilt by association. But it also admits that it has been hard to attack Obama directly. Now, I will admit that Obamacare was controversial and Solyndra or the EPA policies have been unpopular. But overall, he's not guilty of large-scale corruption, ineptness, or indecisiveness.
And I predict right now: He's going to rejuvenate his supporters with a stellar campaign once it gets going. The crowds will appear and he'll gain steam as soon as the Republicans pick a nominee. Why?
2. No Republican candidate poses a serious challenge
Let's be realistic: a win in South Carolina will practically ensure a Romney win. But the primaries have been so bitter that I don't think Romney has really come out very strong. His business record, one of his strongest points, is now a liability. He can't appeal to social conservatives with Santorum still in the race. He has no home-field advantage in any state other than the Mormon West. He doesn't inspire passionate support. He has no charisma. His only chance is to pick a Tea Party running mate like Huckabee or Chris Christie. Maybe a social conservative like Bachmann. Somebody who will energize people. Because he doesn't.
I can't see him holding up under the Democratic attack machine. The media will shred him, the Occupy Wall Street crowd will condemn him, the environmentalists and far-left will abhor him. Why? Because he's in the middle.
He supports civil unions and flip-flopped on abortion. That equals social conservative disinterest. However, he currently opposes abortion and opposes gay marriage. That equals hatred on the social left.
He claims to have a strong business record. But fiscal conservatives are horrified with Romneycare. Liberals abhor his Bain Capital ties. The tea party populists also dislike his Eastern elitist mindset and attitude. He's really a Wall Street banker type.
He doesn't make good speeches, he has no vision for America, and he ultimately won't beat Hope and Change 2.0
3. Incumbent presidents always win reelection barring catastrophe.
No president has lost reelection since George H.W. Before him, Jimmy Carter. But George H.W. lost because he broke his number one campaign promise (taxes) and put the US in a costly war (Iraq). A major recession hit and Clinton promised to fix it while Bush floundered. A young and charismatic Clinton appealed to a weary country. Similarly, Carter flubbed the Iran embassy crisis and the country went into a major recession. Again, a photogenic and charismatic president, Ronald Reagan won election on an economic platform. Does this correlate to this election?
No
The country has passed through the worst of the recession. Things are slowly picking up.
The wars are actually drawing down. Obama successfully ordered the Bin Laden mission. Libya is currently a foreign policy success.
Romney is awkward, wooden, and uncharismatic. He has not presented a clear economic vision for America. Bush and Carter were both looking weary and old. Obama has the ability to be a rock star campaigner and will shift gears very soon.
No comparison. Rather, compare this election to the Clinton vs. Dole election. Clinton was unpopular for the proposed healthcare plan, and for the incredible sex scandals that were brought to light. You would think he might have lost this election, but because Dole was wooden, uncharismatic, and unconvincing, the same as Romney.
4. The Tea Party has lost steam.
Bear with me. I'm not saying the Tea Party is irrelevant. It's just that the party is and will continue to splinter over who to support. The die-hards will boycott the election. The moderates (like Nikki Haley) will endorse Romney and be condemned. The fiscal figures (Christie, Daniels) will support Romney and lose credibility with the "Constitution above all" crowd. This movement will produce a Republican Senate and Congress. But it will actually undermine the Republican presidential nomination.
5. The swing states are turning blue demographically.
Texas, Arizona, etc. have sizable hispanic minorities. These are absolutely voting for Obama. This means Colorado and the Southwest will go Democratic. Georgia and Missouri have sizable African-American minorities which are growing in proportion to other groups. Let's look at the swing states: You have Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Obama carried all of these in 2008. Let's say Romney picks up North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. That's pretty challenging. But I can't see him getting Colorado or Pennsylvania. Let's say he retains Indiana and Georgia. Now let's run the scenarios:
This equals: A win for Romney!....by 270 votes. The bare minimum. So he'll win election by 2 votes. Under a dream scenario for him, having wrested Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Hawaii from Obama. If any ONE of these states bolts, we're looking at 4 more years of Obama.
Considering Obama isn't going to just give up any of those states, I think we can safely assume another 4 years of Obama barring a major scandal or catastrophe.
Reason # 6: The Mainstream Media is Obama's best friend. :)
ReplyDeleteHAHA! I should have mentioned that. The media will rip Romney to shreds and praise Obama to the skies.
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